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[21]Phillip Cryan, "Will A 'Play-or-Pay' Policy For Health Care Cause Job Losses?" Institute for America's Future and the Economic Policy Institute, June 2009; Katherine Baicker and Helen Levy, "Employer Health Insurance Mandates and the Risk of Unemployment," National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.

That difference was then divided by the worker's current hourly pay to find the percentage increase in compensation effectively mandated for that worker.

That percentage was then multiplied by the assumed elasticity of employment (0.03) to mandated wage increases.

These workers are dis­proportionately likely to be single, Hispanic or black, under 30 years of age, non-citizens, and are part-time or part-year employees working in food preparation, sales, or transportation.

In addition, the employers of another 10.2 mil­lion workers will see their labor costs rise because the employers will be required to increase the share of the premium they pay in order to meet the qual­ifying coverage standard under the House man­date.[23] This will put their employees at risk of slower wage growth, fewer hours of work, and reduced job opportunities.

Average hourly pay was calculated using ((WSal-Val / Wks Work) / Hrs Wk).

The amount of payroll tax to be paid per hour for the worker observed was calculated using a 4 percent payroll tax for workers in firms with 10 to 24 employees (emplsz = 2), and 8 percent for workers in firms with 25 or more employees.

However, the ability of firms to raise prices will be constrained by the presence and degree of international com­petition they face and at what point in the busi­ness cycle the mandate is enacted.

(For example, it will be more difficult for employers to raise prices in a recession and recovery when consum­ers are also increasing their savings and reducing their debt.) Moreover, the firms that provide health insurance prior to enactment of the man­date will gain a competitive advantage over those firms that do not currently provide health insur­ance and are subject to the mandate. The play-or-pay man­date will put 5.2 million workers at risk of unem­ployment, working fewer hours, and providing fewer job opportunities (see Table 4), and up to 382,000 workers could lose their jobs.[22] See the methodology below for a description of how these estimates were calculated.

(See Table 2.) Moreover, under the House bill, 9 million of the workers in these covered businesses would be automatically eligible for Medicaid (10.4 million under the HELP Committee bill).

Most of the workers in covered businesses who do not have employment-based health insurance are employed in industries defined by the Census Bureau as: restaurants (12 percent), department stores (3 percent), grocery stores (3 percent), colleges and universities (3 percent), other amuse­ment (a subset of amusement), gambling, and rec­reation industries (2 percent), nursing care (1.7 percent), and employment services (1.5 percent).

The sum of the probabilities of job loss for at-risk workers, using the appropriate ASEC weight, was calculated to estimate the national employment loss estimate.


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